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Using Elliot Wave Theory to Analyze the Stock Market
Elliot Wave - Some market technicians that use technical analysis to look for a nearing market bottom or market top have noticed over the past several years that the stock market will consistently move in a 5 wave pattern which is based on concepts from Elliott Wave Theory. When the stock market is trending upward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves upward and 2 separate moves downward before a top occurs. Meanwhile when the stock market is trending downward a 5 wave pattern consists of 3 separate moves downward and 2 separate moves upward before a bottom occurs.
Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq and S&P 500 and analyze their one year charts using concepts from Elliot Wave Theory. Notice how both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 made a bottom in late July of 2002 (points A) and then made 3 separate moves upward (A to 1, 2 to 3 and 4 to 5) followed by 2 separate moves downward (1 to 2 and 3 to 4) before topping out in late August after completing a 5 wave pattern. Read On …….
Emini - Why does technical analysis work?
Technical analysis describes different ways of predicting the future of the stock/futures market based on its history. Unfortunately, technical analysis is not an exact science. Many prominent scientists label it as “voodoo science". They claim that due to market efficiency, if you use TA to find your entry positions, you’re no better off than someone who chooses those positions randomly. Market efficiency means that all the available information is already calculated in the stock prices, and that you can only guess how the price will behave in the future.
The “voodoo science” theory would make sense if it wasn’t for the fact that there is a significant number of traders who are able to consistently make profits in the stock/futures market. These traders use technical analysis as their main tool. Since any trader has or can have access to the same TA tools we have to ask how can a small group of traders consistently win and the other larger group, more or less consistently lose in the stock market game. What is it that winning traders know about technical analysis that gives them the upper hand? Read the rest of this Article….
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Technical analysis
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Charting or technical analysis is the use of numerical series generated by market activity, such as price and volume traded, to predict future trends in that market. The techniques can be applied to any market with a comprehensive price history. Technical analysis does not try to analyze the financial data of a company, such as cashflow, dividends, and projection of future dividends; that type of analysis is called fundamental analysis.
While technical analysis is widely used (if only as one input among many) by both professional and amateur traders as a means of predicting future market moves, it is generally not used by economists in any academic sense.
Technical analysis implicitly rejects the efficiency of the market as understood in the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). That is, using technical analysis on a particular market implicitly assumes that that market is not efficient, as defined by EMH. The efficient markets theories basically argue that existing prices reflect all available information, and that future price movements will follow a path that will approximate to a random walk (Brownian motion) as they adjust to new information as it emerges. The theories further assume that all participants in the stock market have equal and instantaneous access to all information that might affect stocks. Read More….
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Chart Patterns to Avoid: Climax Top Off a Parabolic Move
Chart Patterns to Avoid: Climax Top Off a Parabolic Move - This pattern occurs when a stock rises very quickly out of a base and gets overextended. Stocks in a Parabolic Move can double or triple in value in a very short period of time (usually less than two weeks). As an investor you certainly don’t want to be one of the last passengers on the train and get quickly thrown off. Some examples of this pattern are shown below.
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