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Exiting Trades: Profit Targets & Stops
Subscriber question on profit targets & stops …
Got this email from Ron the other day and it states the problem brilliantly:
“Hi Barry, Need to ask if you have insights into the psychology (especially the fear) of trading the Emini? Have studied my trades and notice the following behaviours:
1. When the trade goes my way, I tend to bring my stop in to break even (fear of turning into a losing trade). Often I get stopped out only to watch the trade produce 2-3 points if I had stayed in.
2. I tend to take profits early, in the first leg in my trade. I notice in your videos that you get your 4 points by allowing the trade to pullback, then reach your targets. That is nerve racking for me, again, I believe fear of turning the trade into a loser.
3. My stop is at 1 – 1.5 points, thinking that if the trade goes that far, it is not doing what I thought and I need to get out. There have been times when I have been glad but often I get stopped out only to see the trade move into winning territory.”
Here’s my 2 cents on Exits and psychology. Please bear in mind that the numbers used apply to the Emini market.
The “Magic 4 Points” profit target …
The Emini tends to move in 8 to 10 point trend “legs”. If we’re lucky there are 2 to 3 of these a day – but from time to time we get no volatility and you’re better off not trading at all.
So if the average trend leg is 8 to 10 points – how much of this can you capture? The start of a trend leg will always have some chop, usually around 2 points. Then the end of a move will also have some chop as the market finds a bottom or a top – again, usually 2 points.
What we’re left with is 4 to 6 points of solid trend in the middle of a trend leg. And that’s what I’m trying to capture – the “Magic 4 Points”.
So for me, assuming I’ve entered well – not at an extreme but after the move starts to prove itself – the prudent thing to do is take profits after 4 points. That way I’ve exited while the trend is still moving and traders are chasing the trend, plus I’m not sitting through chop and trying to pick the extreme of the move.
The only exception to my 4 point profit target is on an “Icebreaker” trade. This is my first trade of the day and all I’m trying to get is 2 points. Psychologically it’s nice to be out with a solid 2 points, plus at the beginning of the day the market tends to be range bound and finding the support and resistance levels.
The “Pro Signal” exit …
The highest risk-to-reward exit signal I’ve found is called the “Pro Signal”. The signal is made up of a Professional bar plus nearby Exhaustion volume pattern on the 1,500 tick bar chart.
This highlights an area of support or resistance where Professionals re-enter the market to take profits. Plus with Exhaustion volume the move has temporarily run out of sellers or buyers and so is ripe for a small reversal.
Reversals on the Emini tend to be 1 to 2 points and so rather than sit through this I like to be out, having taken my profits.
Normally, if I’ve entered well, my “Magic 4 Points” profit target is very close to this “Pro Signal” exit – and so I’m happy to be out. If I’ve missed a good entry then I’ll just exit at market as soon as I see the “Pro Signal” – and hope to get 2 to 3 points of profit.
Psychologically I like this exit. I’ve taken profits while the trend is in my favour. I don’t have to sit through a 1 to 2 point retracement. Plus I don’t have to agonize over where the trend move will eventually end. It’s the perfect place to exit a “runner”.
The “Room to Move” 4 point stop loss …
One of the things that differentiates Professionals from Amateurs is the size of their stop.
Amateurs have been convinced that they can trade with minimum risk and only a 1 to 1.5 point stop. This assumes they can enter their trades perfectly and that the market immediately goes in their favour.
Both of these things are fantasy.
The Emini is a volatile market and the Professionals love to shake out the Amateurs. The stops are clustered in such obvious places it’s just plain fun gunning for them. Moves testing and exceeding recent pivot points by 1 point are common – pull up an Emini chart and see for yourself.
So what I do is use a 4 point stop and reduce the number of contracts I trade so that the damage to my account equity from a stopped out trade is minimal (2.5%).
This activity by the Professionals – testing pivot points and running stops – also makes using a Break Even stop a non-starter. Much better to get the trend direction right and just to wait for the “Magic 4 Points” profit target to be hit.
And the “Cute” stuff I avoid …
Trailing stops sound fantastic – maximize your gains by trailing a stop and exit when the trend finishes. Trading books are filled with them: based on ATR or lowest low of last x bars.
Another real life versus “I read it in a book” clash.
If you exit on a trailing stop you’re forced to exit during a retracement – you’ll get slippage and at the end of the day you’ll make almost no more than if you’d exited on the “Pro Signal” or the “Magic 4 Points” profit target.
Yes, occasionally the market melts down or melts up – and a trailing stop results in a 10 point monster trade. But, honestly, day-to-day you’re much better off having a profit target and exiting as the trend is moving – no slippage, less time in the market, less risk and psychologically easier to trade.
Summary: Keep it Simple
So in terms of profit targets and stop loss orders, here’s what works for me:
1. 4 Point profit target
2. 4 Point stop loss (risk-to-reward ratio of 1-to-1)
3. Profit target and stop loss orders transmitted with the entry order (OCA)
4. Exit a runner either at target or when I see a “Pro Signal”, and
5. Don’t forget the “Gut” exit – if it doesn’t feel right, get out and watch.
Good luck with your Emini trading and remember “the trend is your friend” – get the trend direction right and your profit target will get hit, eventually.
Written by:
Barry Taylor
http://Emini-Watch.com
Forex Price Action Trading Methods and Strategies
Here?s a great video that deals with Forex methods and Strategies. Specifically Price action:
Inside the MACD Indicator
The MACD, Moving Average Convergence Divergence, indicator is probably the most popular indicator in use today. It is also one of the most misunderstood, with it often being described amongst chartists as ‘An average of an average’. Before we begin to dissect the MACD indicator it is necessary to mathematically define the signal line, reference line and histogram. Depending on which charting program you are using, the formulas for the Signal line and the Reference line may be reversed. The values in these formulas are the universal default settings.
Signal Line = 12 Day EMA – 26 Day EMA
Reference Line = 9 Period EMA of the Signal Line
Histogram = Signal Line – Reference Line
